Let's Talk Snow Chances

I'm a snow lover so I look for chances of snow whenever I can. Thankfully, I live in Denver where the chance of snow comes and goes. I've been watching several systems that could bring Denver snow but as per usual, the mountains will benefit more from these systems. That's good news for ski areas.

I'm watching 3 disturbances that could bring some snow to Colorado in the next 10 days. 

CHANCE #1

This snow chance is going to be mainly confined to the mountains and will be a weak burst of moisture and cold air. 

Weak disturbance pushed through Friday to Saturday 

There's a weak disturbance that will move through that will bring some breezy winds with it and some mediocre moisture but we'll take what we can get. Precip could start as early as tonight in the mountains and continue through Saturday morning. The main energy of this storm will skirt across northern Colorado through the day on Friday. That's when we could expect some accumulation up in the mountains. These totals will be generally light since we don't have a significant amount of moisture to work it. 

Snowfall through Saturday night

Overall snow looks light. I'm thinking most areas will pick up between 1-3" of snow with some of the higher passes and favored slopes getting up to 6 inches but that's going to be less likely. Notice how there's some snow showing up just to the south and west of Denver. There will be cool enough air to support some flakes around Genesee but Denver will likely miss out on the frozen precip. With that said, shower activity will increase in Denver for Friday night and that is likely to come like rain but some graupel or a slushy mixture of precip but no accumulation is likely. 

CHANCE #2

Our second chance of seeing some snow comes from Saturday night through early next week. A system that will eventually form and strengthen near eastern Wyoming will bring colder air and more moisture. That spells higher snow chances. 

Stronger disturbance moves through on Sunday 

This system is likely to spawn off some winter weather advisories or even some winter storm alerts. Not only will we have the energy of this low pressure but the jet stream will be overhead at times and that will increase the moisture and convective nature of the snow and possible lower elevation rain showers. Something of note is that the jet stream will linger for a good bit and keep our flow coming from the west-south-west keeping the chance of snow showers in the mountains through Tuesday or even Wednesday morning. 

Total snow accumulations through Tuesday evening

This map looks great, doesn't it?! Keep in mind when looking at the image above that this includes the snow that is expected through Saturday. With that said, if you subtract the 1-3" that is expected, that leaves this storm dropping a more widespread 2-6" for the southern mountains and a widespread 4-8" for the northern mountains! Travel could become difficult at times during this event. Notice how we still don't see much snow accumulation for Denver. I'm not completely buying this because there will be moisture around and enough cold air to support some flakes for Denver. Again though, it doesn't look like much for lower elevations. Higher elevations could really benefit from this with the added influence of the jet stream overhead, we could see some heavier 'banding' occur in the snow showers.

CHANCE #3

Our third chance of seeing some snow and maybe our best chance comes at the end of next week. Near the 24-25th time frame. What's looking like a rather potent storm right now will be moving into the area. This will bring more snow to the mountains and the chance for accumulating snow for the front Range, including Denver! 

The long term look at a system that could impact us late next week

Above is a look at the system that will impact us. There are some discrepancies between models here. The EURO shows a good storm moving through while the GFS is not really showing much of anything. I've seen a little bit of consistency in the model enough for me to mention this. I'll talk snow totals but realize that I am much more confident in the first two chances of snow rather than this one. 

Snow TOTAL through October 27

So, clearly with the image above you notice the snow covering the Plains. That is a possibility. As of now, the EURO is showing about 2-4" of snow for Denver with the mountains benefitting from an additional 3-5" of the fresh stuff. This is quite a way out so we'll have to monitor this closely and not take to much stock in it just yet. 

Overall, this is a great pattern to be in. Consistent snow chances for the mountains is great news. 

TEMPERATURES

I do want to talk temps for a bit because will snow chances come cooler weather and that's something that is pretty much guaranteed at this point. 

Temperatures in Denver over the next 10 days 

Temperatures are going to fluctuate a bit but notice that we are going to have more below-average days (in terms of high temps) than above-average days. We cool off to normal with the weak system on Friday and then drop to the 40s for highs by Monday as the stronger system moves in. We warm up for a day or two before that third blast of cooler air moves in and it looks like that cold weather could hang around a bit longer. 

Stay tuned! Looks like a fun two weeks for Colorado! 

Rain or Shine

I'm Andy Stein